The world has witnessed the worst humanitarian catastrophe in neighbouring Yemen with its complex proxy war that has deepened over the years. Ethiopia, which is also part of the Red Sea region, is glaring into a Yemen-esque scenario in the event the conflict in Tigray is not resolved immediately politically and diplomatically. Moreover, the Ethiopia-Tigray war will have a geopolitical ramification that will reconstitute the geopolitics of the region — a region that has become of interest over the years to world powers like the US, China, Turkey, Britain and most recently Russia, which will have its first naval base in Sudan. This played into the hands of Ethiopia which was then worried about both nationalist and radical groups in Somalia, Secessionist rebel groups, the Eritrean regime and the neighbouring Gulf States. However, reforms were impossible in the face of threats from the old-guard TPLF and the Eritrean regime. The Prime Minister had to be pragmatic and equally swift. With abrupt and surprising visits to Eritrea, bonds Play Nile Of The River Slot strengthened with Asmara. This also played into the hands of Eritrea, a country that was a geopolitical pariah for decades and slammed with numerous sanctions by the US. Moreover, in lateEthiopia, Somalia and Eritrea undertook their first tri-partite talks about regional politics and security. Diplomatic rapprochements in the horn surprised many. Both leaders were awarded medals of honours; this was more than a symbolic gesture. The Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region were undergoing tectonic shifts in terms of geopolitics. Gulf States worried about Chinese and Turkish geopolitical ventures into the region were prepared to counter. UAE installed a military base in Eritrea and planned a naval post in the break-away region of Somaliland. The Horn of Africa became a geopolitical battle-ground. Even a possible and inevitable military confrontation was on the mouths of diplomats and regional observers in the event the talks fail. This is unprecedented and given its time will have geopolitical ramifications. Negotiations between Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt have been stalled for years since each country had its own entrenched un-negotiable demands. A deal seems to be out of reach for all countries and this is an unpleasant situation for the whole region. The rights to the Nile river waters have been contested for decades. Ever since then, the waters of the Nile have been the bone of contentions for Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia. The Khartoum Declaration, as it was called, emphasised on the preservation, maintenance and use of the Nile waters efficiently and in sustainable ways agreed upon by all the riparian nations that the Nile River pass through. However, sentiments changed as the GERD dam approached its finishing line. The economies and livelihoods of the majority of Egyptians and Sudanese people depend on the Nile waters. This has rendered the GERD talks a national security issue for both Sudan and Egypt; while Ethiopia also claims of sovereign rights to waters within its borders. The US was leaning towards the Egyptian and Sudanese position regarding the dam. Ethiopia moved on to fill the dam amid diplomatic protests from Sudan and Egypt. This raised the tensions. The Tigray region is a rough and rugged region with mountain ranges and difficult road — it is similar to the Southern Turkey and Northern Iraq. Moreover, the TPLF, a guerrilla rebel group that come to power in Ethiopia in and ruled the country for three decades will not be easily dislodged or defeated. The TPLF is armed to the teeth even if it is militarily over-powered. A guerrilla war with the potential of morphing into a Play Nile Of The River Slot war that pulls-in regional countries is in the making in Ethiopia. This is dangerous and will have far-reaching geopolitical and humanitarian consequences. The Ethiopia-Tigray conflict is taking a geopolitical dimension. In the event of a failed talks and a prolonged conflict in the Tigray region, it is not unlikely that both Sudan and Egypt will participate in this active theatre of war seeking their own interest in its outcome. The Ethiopia-Tigray war could ignite the whole region into violence and humanitarian catastrophes. Ethiopia is in unexpected war it never wanted. In an overnight, a political impasse Play Nile Of The River Slot political adversaries culminated into a full-fledged military war. Ethiopia is a country with a volatile and complex political history rife with violence and brutalities. There are no easy solutions to this conflict which might get prolonged and engulf the whole region.
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Abiy Ahmed’s geopolitical logic
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